NBA playoff picture 2024: Scenarios, magic numbers and predictions

The 2-5 Seeds are Liquid

The Bucks are up two games in the loss column on the Cavaliers and just two on the Magic (?!) and the Knicks. The Bucks, having lost as a double-digit underdog three straight times, are very much in danger of sliding. Their only saving grace is injuries to the Knicks and Cavs, plus some inexplicable late-season losses for all three teams chasing them.

The Cavs and Bucks split the season series 2-2, but Cleveland has clinched the tiebreaker on division record. (Notably, this would still be in play for a split, and the Cavs would have the edge in the conference tiebreaker, but they lost to the Pacers in the In-Season Tournament (IST). So, the IST games could literally wind up deciding home court.)

The Knicks are one game back in the loss column from third and two back from second. OG Anunoby will likely return before the playoffs. This is the most interesting seeding to me.

If the Knicks can get out of the Celtics' bracket, I think there's value in them to win the Eastern Conference. They match up well with the Bucks with their combination of tough defense, Jalen Brunson's attacking pick-and-roll drop coverage, shooting and rebounding. They bounced Cleveland last year, and while I would hope the Cavs have learned a thing or two since then, you still have to think it favors the Knicks.

The Magic, unbelievably, aren't far behind. Orlando's only real path out of the first round rests with landing the 2-seed and getting the Pacers. The Magic might open as series favorites vs. the Sixers or the Heat, but likely close as 'dogs before tipoff of Game 1. Even the Pacers would be a tough matchup for a team that hasn't made a postseason appearance and features the 23rd-ranked offense on Dunks & Threes (schedule-adjusted).

It's important to note that while the Pacers are just two back of the Magic for the 5-seed, Milwaukee, Cleveland, New York and Orlando will almost definitely be the 2-5 seeds in some order.

The order is important. Indiana has had Milwaukee's number this season. The playoffs are a different matter, but the Pacers might genuinely prefer a matchup with the Bucks over one against the Knicks or Magic. Indiana has success against top offenses that aren't great defensively, and struggle more with great defenses that struggle offensively. (The Knicks are balanced on both.)

The Knicks' preferred stack is likely a 3-seed vs. the Magic or Pacers, with the Bucks in the second round. Cleveland likely prefers Indiana in the 3-6 or 2-7. The Cavs have given the Bucks some trouble over the last two seasons and are familiar with them. Cleveland would be 'dogs even with home court, but it's at least an interesting matchup.

There are no good answers for the Bucks. They either get the Pacers, the Heat (like Indiana, a problematic matchup), the Knicks, who have a matchup advantage with Jalen Brunson, or the Sixers, who have the best team with Joel Embiid back. Milwaukee's preferred stack has to be a 2-7 matchup against the Pacers, with Cavs-Magic in the 3-6.

The 6-Seed Clump

Miami, Indiana and Philadelphia are all bunched together in the 6-7-8 range.

Two weeks ago, we told you this could get weird. It's gotten weird.

Embiid returned and the Sixers are suddenly heating up, winners of three straight and stabilizing. They have a real shot of getting to the sixth seed with the Heat and Pacers playing on Sunday.

Miami is where it was last year. The Heat were -0.3 in point differential last season and are currently +1.6 — over the net-neutral line, but not by much. They were six games over .500 last season and are seven games over .500 this season.

They are a slightly better version of the team they were last season, meaning they are still very dangerous. A Play-In-to-Finals run is — just like last season — improbable, but more possible for them than other teams in their profile and position.

The Pacers have slid. They got a good win against the Thunder (who were without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams) on Friday night, but they have a lot of work to do to get where they need to be.

The Sixers and Heat split their season series 2-2. Miami has the lead for the conference record tiebreaker. There is a chance that the Sixers can catch them in that category, but they trail in the next category (record vs. playoff teams) as well (depending on who gets in).

The Pacers and Heat are tied 1-1. Sunday's game is not just for the tiebreaker but for a three-way tiebreaker with the Sixers, Heat and Pacers.

We are unlikely to know until at least Friday who is where in this clump.

The 'Just Happy to be Here' Duo

Chicago-Atlanta is going to be the 9-10 matchup in the East. You can just go ahead and mark that in pen.

The Bulls are four games back of the 76ers for the 8-seed; the Sixers' magic number for at least eighth is one. Chicago is not climbing to eighth.

These teams are within a game of each other in the loss column for the 9-seed. That matters more than you'd think. The 10-seed is 0-6 in making the playoffs in three seasons of Play-In tournaments, while the 9-seed is 3-3.

You might make it out if something bonkers happens to the Pacers, Heat or 76ers in a one-game environment, but you're almost definitely not winning two road games when you have this kind of profile. Regardless, the 9-10 spots (even if they make it out) would be nothing but fodder for the Celtics.

The Bulls have the tiebreaker over the Hawks. If Chicago gets a win and two losses from the Hawks, it might be able to shut it down by midweek, get healthy, and focus on the Play-In Tournament, scouting for both Atlanta and whoever falls in the Pacers-Sixers-Heat trifecta.

Western Conference

The Top-of-the-West Round Robin of Doom

It's exciting and crazy that with five games remaining we don't know who the 1- or 2-seed will be in the Western Conference.

The Nuggets and Timberwolves are tied in the loss column, the Thunder are one game back after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jaylen Williams missed their East Coast road trip due to injuries.

The Wolves own tiebreakers over the Thunder and Nuggets. They split season series with the Thunder, split division record (or can win it outright with a win vs. the Nuggets on Wednesday), and own the third tiebreaker (conference record). If OKC catches up in conference record, it would just pass the Wolves in overall record.

The Thunder own the tiebreaker over the Nuggets in season series (3-1).

The Nugget have the easier remaining schedule with Atlanta, Utah, San Antonio and Memphis. However, they have one tough matchup on Wednesday (vs. the Wolves), which could decide the 1-seed.

Those three teams (Nuggets, Wolves, Thunder) will face one of these teams in the first round: Warriors, Lakers, Suns, Pelicans, Kings or Mavericks.

Have I mentioned the West is tough?

Denver doesn't need to worry about whoever it faces.

The Lakers have hung with Denver, but have lost eight straight. The Mavericks present problems, but the Nuggets would be heavy favorites nonetheless. The Suns have won two straight against the Nuggets (in Denver), but again, Denver would be big favorites. The Kings also won the season series against the Nuggets.

Denver is 6-7 this season vs. teams likely to finish in the 6- or 7-seed (Suns, Pelicans, Kings, Mavericks). But fully healthy and engaged, Denver is still the best in the West.

The Thunder need to stay as far away from the Lakers as possible. The goal for OKC, the youngest team in the league, should be to advance as far as possible and avoid a disappointing first-round exit.

The Lakers are best suited to knock them out with their size. The Thunder will be challenged but still have big advantages over the Mavericks, Suns, Kings and Pelicans. It should be noted that the Thunder are 2-4 against the Kings and Mavericks.

The Timberwolves are in a sneaky good spot. They might wind up with the 1-seed, and they don't have to fear the Lakers the way other teams do because of their size and defense. They have the best record vs. the other 11 teams in contention and have proven there's not a really bad matchup out there for them.

Home-court advantage would be great, mostly to avoid going to Denver (and playing in altitude) in a potential Conference Finals clash. Minnesota is in a great spot if it can get Karl-Anthony Towns back at some point.

The 4-5 Matchup Looked Set Until it Wasn't

The Clippers are up two in the loss column on the Mavericks and own tiebreaker. Their magic number for the 4-seed is two. They are unlikely to climb higher.

Dallas is up one in the tiebreaker on Phoenix, and two on the Pelicans. After the Pelicans lost to the Spurs on Friday night, the Mavericks own that tiebreaker on division record as well. Dallas' magic number for the 5-seed is four.

Here's Where Everything Goes Berserk

Three losses separate the Mavericks (in the 5-seed) from the Lakers (in the 9-seed). There are a bunch of ways the 5-9 could shake out.

Here's the tiebreaker chart. The first number is how many games are in the season series, the second figure is the season series record for the team in the left-hand column. Green means they've clinched, gray means they've lost it and blue means it has split.

The Mavericks have the tiebreaker over the Lakers, Suns, Pelicans, and Warriors. Kings is too close to call on conference record.

The Warriors have the tiebreaker over the Rockets (this is significant — I'll get to that later), and have lost it to the Suns and Mavericks. Golden State split vs. the Kings and have games against the Lakers and the Pelicans to decide.

The Lakers have the tiebreaker over the Suns, have lost it to the Mavericks and the Kings, and have games to decide vs. the Warriors and Pelicans.

The Pelicans have the tiebreaker over the Kings, have lost it to the Mavericks and Suns, and have one game left to decide vs. the Lakers.

The Suns have the tiebreaker over the Warriors and Pelicans, have lost it to the Mavericks and Lakers, and have one game left vs. the Kings.

The Kings have the tiebreaker over the Lakers, have lost to the Pelicans and Rockets, split with the Warriors and Mavericks, and have a crucial game left vs. the Suns to decide.

Also wrapped up in this is the Southwest Division winner. As mentioned earlier, the Mavericks clinched the tiebreaker over Pelicans thanks to division record.

Why does this matter? If you are in a multi-team tie, division winner is the first tiebreaker.

Say the Pelicans, Mavericks and Suns tie for 5-6-7. The division winner would get the 5-seed outright, while the tiebreaker winner between the other two would get the 6-seed, leaving the last team in the play-in. Surprise, division winner matters!

Thanks to the Kings' devastating run of injuries, the Lakers have a real chance to get out of the ninth spot and get two chances at a playoff spot. They lost the season series to the Kings but are tied in the loss column. There's a very real chance the Lakers sneak into the eighth seed and face a Pelicans team they have destroyed several times this season. They moved into 8th on Saturday with their win over Cleveland, but only by percentage points; the Kings still control destiny thanks to tiebreaker.

The Warriors are two back in the loss column of the Lakers (and have a chance at the tiebreaker). They have effectively crushed the Rockets with their win in Houston the other night. Houston has to win out and the Warriors have to lose out for the Rockets to make it.

The top 10 in the West is effectively locked.